No time is wrong for a Correct Step

No time is wrong for a Correct Step.

There is no perfect timing for a correct step, it should be taken once you are ready, not to execute but to face the challenges that will come up. When there is no way to move ahead, just start walking on one of the ways instead of sitting idle. This is what exactly this government had done. To start somewhere is a big decision and it needs support.

Here are my views on various aspects of the impact of the decision taken.

Weather

Imagine if the decision would have come in December or January, it’s too cold in some areas, inconvenient for senior citizens and most of the people due to the chill.

Feb , March are peak wedding season and Budget session, financial year closing. IT would have been a disaster.

April to September are too hot or rainy, disaster for people to stand in queues.

Oct to Nov these are festival months, Durga puja, followed by Diwali, peak business season. Impossible do it peacefully, market could have crashed like hell.

Hence the decision was taken exactly after Chhath puja, this time there are no major festivals in most parts of the country, business have just been stabilized after Diwali sale rush, weather is just perfect, not to hot not too cool.

Imagine the ruckus the #NewsTards have created in difficult weather conditions. They have nothing to say as of now in that aspect.

Farmers are facing some issues but they are given relief. 

Elections

From election point of view, this is a masterstroke, many parties and gunda-type leaders are paralyzed by this decision. The black money collected by all the parties might not be used in elections, at least major part of it will be lost. Every party will be affected including BJP, but it is not about what BJP gains in UP, it will more about what SP and BSP loose due to loss of cash.

AAP, BSP, SP, Congress have lost a lot. AAP opting out of Mumbai and Chandigarh local elections is one such damage for political parties.

Security

After the recent surgical strike in Pakistan, it was expected that in near future there could have been a terrorist activity in some unexpected areas, but due to demonetization all such activities plans are destroyed.

Jammu Kashmir returning to normalcy is one such advantage that came up.

Actual figures of fake currency and black money are yet to be made public. 

Planning

People are complaining about the planning of Demonetization decision from Modi government. Yes, complaints will come. Main complaints are planning not complete and execution not proper.

For such decision to have maximum outcome, what could have been planned or planned better?

Two main concerns for government, How to replace old notes? How new notes will reach the banks and ATMs?

The crooks are much smarter and have longer hands than we all think. Recalibration of ATM’s couldn’t be done beforehand due to the same reason, bankers , CA’s and entire finance industry could have got the sense of something fishy and entire bundles of notes could have been dumped in various assets, on a slightest of hint.

Main aim of the government was to get all the old notes deposited in the banks in limited time, and thinking was absolutely right. Ideal situation would have been everyone made to deposit everything they have and get the new currency from the account. But, that would have resulted in panic and worse situation. As an immediate relief, government trusted people to get some currency replaced by showing their IDs, this facility was intended for the real poor people, who are not expected to carry more that 3-4 k in hand and may be don’t have accounts. For others actual path was to deposit all our currency in one go in your accounts and withdraw.

But people rushed to exchange the currency like anything. Not only their own notes, but some poor were trapped to stand in queues to replace currency of some big guns, causing the unusual long queues.

If the exact figures of number of people who exchanged the notes are made public you will come to know that it will be quite high as compared to the number of people expected by government, as huge number of people stood in queue multiple times. Hence, misusing the facility that government provided.

Having said that if queues have reduced, banks could have made more attempts and limit of withdrawal could have been increased sooner.

2000Rs note is to overcome the cash crunch with respect to the printing capacity of the government note printing bodies. Its almost 1/4^th the number of notes that needs to be printed to replace all 500Rs notes. Till other notes comes to marked this will keep the business running. New Rs500 notes and Rs2000 will resolve all issues.

Coming to constraints regarding logistics, yes the problem exist, the logistics problem is inevitable. This had to happen and crunch could not have been avoided, on any day the decision had to come in effect.

Dynamic and frequent rule changing

If government had to hit, there was never a perfect plan, except to come up with run-time solutions and that is what government is doing by changing the rules. It is not rule changing, but adjustments to the situations. Initial intent was to provide immediate help with some cash replacement and some withdrawal, when situation changed and people demanded more cash the limits were increased, but when people starting abusing the facility given the limits were reduced as a counter measure.  Withdrawal limits are increased as per cash reaching out to banks and as the people raised concerns. Government had been very sensitive and quick in taking decisions in favor of farmers, traders and common people.

Limits and places for accepting the old notes have been adjusted, understand the sync in which government is working, be it railways accepting old notes, roadways accepting the notes and making roads toll free, ministry of petroleum making all efforts to comfort people. Almost all government bodies are cooperating.

Special thanks to the banks for working so hard. 

Creating panic

Though there are some problems in many areas, lack of cash with banks, logistics and long queues to list a few. Some people are creating panic and trying to initiate rioting.

Be it the #NewsTards (or #Presstitutes) who are spreading their own propaganda by showing and/or printing fake news and creating heat among the people standing the queues.

News agencies/channels instead of running their own propaganda could have made a valuable contribution but informing people but information on channels and newspapers were shown/printed to create panic instead of helping them.

The political leaders which have nothing but just one task to oppose Modi, without even thinking of the situation. Instead of creating panic and start useless remarks and agitate go to your states, and help people wherever you can, but no they won’t else Modi will take all the credit. In the race of opposing Modi they are killing their own political careers.

Similar situation is with the Supreme Court. Instead of making remark like – “Rioting will happen” they could have made more sensible comment. If they are with the nation they should have asked the government to take proper steps and asked for the clarifications of doubts. But SC decided to go other way. SC has to understand its own importance and the impact of their own comments and news agencies have to present it in better way then printing the headlines about possible riot. 

What should everyone do?

Be critical to government it is required to keep the things democratic, but with critical point support the government with your suggestions what could be done better instead of fighting for rollback which is not possible. Government has open ears and listening to every good idea to make life easier for people.

Supreme Court need to support, as decision cannot be rolled back. But instead of creating panic, SC can guide the government to take better steps. Must understand the constraints and efforts.

Political parties and CMs of various states should stay in their state and try to control the situations. No-body stopped you to help farmers with financial help from your state.

Public need to understand, there is enough time. 40 more days to go. Try to do all white transactions, deposit most of your cash in one go and take out what you need, do not store the change. Think of a difficult time the nation has to survive, there won’t be any opportunity in life of most of us to stand for the nation. Have patience, cooperate with each other it’s a matter of just few days. Things will be normal.

And everyone may criticize the government to any level as soon as the nation is out of the crisis. If the decision is wrong and people didn’t like it, 2019 is out of Modi’s reach and if people are with him, do whatever you can 2019- Modi is coming again with more power.

Be united as a nation during the crisis.