No time is wrong for a Correct Step.
There is no perfect timing for a
correct step, it should be taken once you are ready, not to execute but to face
the challenges that will come up. When there is no way to move ahead, just
start walking on one of the ways instead of sitting idle. This is what exactly
this government had done. To start somewhere is a big decision and it needs
support.
Here are my views on various
aspects of the impact of the decision taken.
Weather
Imagine if the decision would have
come in December or January, it’s too cold in some areas, inconvenient for
senior citizens and most of the people due to the chill.
Feb , March are peak wedding
season and Budget session, financial year closing. IT would have been a
disaster.
April to September are too hot or
rainy, disaster for people to stand in queues.
Oct to Nov these are festival
months, Durga puja, followed by Diwali, peak business season. Impossible do it
peacefully, market could have crashed like hell.
Hence the decision was taken
exactly after Chhath puja, this time there are no major festivals in most parts
of the country, business have just been stabilized after Diwali sale rush, weather
is just perfect, not to hot not too cool.
Imagine the ruckus the #NewsTards
have created in difficult weather conditions. They have nothing to say as of
now in that aspect.
Farmers are facing some issues
but they are given relief.
Elections
From election point of view, this is
a masterstroke, many parties and gunda-type leaders are paralyzed by this
decision. The black money collected by all the parties might not be used in
elections, at least major part of it will be lost. Every party will be affected
including BJP, but it is not about what BJP gains in UP, it will more about
what SP and BSP loose due to loss of cash.
AAP, BSP, SP, Congress have lost a
lot. AAP opting out of Mumbai and Chandigarh local elections is one such damage
for political parties.
Security
After the recent surgical strike
in Pakistan, it was expected that in near future there could have been a terrorist
activity in some unexpected areas, but due to demonetization all such
activities plans are destroyed.
Jammu Kashmir returning to
normalcy is one such advantage that came up.
Actual figures of fake currency
and black money are yet to be made public.
Planning
People are complaining about the
planning of Demonetization decision from Modi government. Yes, complaints will
come. Main complaints are planning not complete and execution not proper.
For such decision to have maximum
outcome, what could have been planned or planned better?
Two main concerns for government,
How to replace old notes? How new notes will reach the banks and ATMs?
The crooks are much smarter and
have longer hands than we all think. Recalibration of ATM’s couldn’t be done beforehand
due to the same reason, bankers , CA’s and entire finance industry could have
got the sense of something fishy and entire bundles of notes could have been
dumped in various assets, on a slightest of hint.
Main aim of the government was to
get all the old notes deposited in the banks in limited time, and thinking was
absolutely right. Ideal situation would have been everyone made to deposit everything
they have and get the new currency from the account. But, that would have
resulted in panic and worse situation. As an immediate relief, government
trusted people to get some currency replaced by showing their IDs, this facility
was intended for the real poor people, who are not expected to carry more that
3-4 k in hand and may be don’t have accounts. For others actual path was to
deposit all our currency in one go in your accounts and withdraw.
But people rushed to exchange the
currency like anything. Not only their own notes, but some poor were trapped to
stand in queues to replace currency of some big guns, causing the unusual long
queues.
If the exact figures of number of
people who exchanged the notes are made public you will come to know that it
will be quite high as compared to the number of people expected by government,
as huge number of people stood in queue multiple times. Hence, misusing the
facility that government provided.
Having said that if queues have
reduced, banks could have made more attempts and limit of withdrawal could have
been increased sooner.
2000Rs note is to overcome the
cash crunch with respect to the printing capacity of the government note
printing bodies. Its almost 1/4th the number of notes that needs to
be printed to replace all 500Rs notes. Till other notes comes to marked this
will keep the business running. New Rs500 notes and Rs2000 will resolve all
issues.
Coming to constraints regarding
logistics, yes the problem exist, the logistics problem is inevitable. This had
to happen and crunch could not have been avoided, on any day the decision had
to come in effect.
Dynamic and frequent rule
changing
If government had to hit, there
was never a perfect plan, except to come up with run-time solutions and that is
what government is doing by changing the rules. It is not rule changing, but
adjustments to the situations. Initial intent was to provide immediate help
with some cash replacement and some withdrawal, when situation changed and
people demanded more cash the limits were increased, but when people starting
abusing the facility given the limits were reduced as a counter measure. Withdrawal limits are increased as per cash reaching
out to banks and as the people raised concerns. Government had been very
sensitive and quick in taking decisions in favor of farmers, traders and common
people.
Limits and places for accepting
the old notes have been adjusted, understand the sync in which government is
working, be it railways accepting old notes, roadways accepting the notes and
making roads toll free, ministry of petroleum making all efforts to comfort
people. Almost all government bodies are cooperating.
Special thanks to the banks for
working so hard.
Creating panic
Though there are some problems in
many areas, lack of cash with banks, logistics and long queues to list a few. Some
people are creating panic and trying to initiate rioting.
Be it the #NewsTards (or
#Presstitutes) who are spreading their own propaganda by showing and/or
printing fake news and creating heat among the people standing the queues.
News agencies/channels instead of
running their own propaganda could have made a valuable contribution but
informing people but information on channels and newspapers were shown/printed
to create panic instead of helping them.
The political leaders which have
nothing but just one task to oppose Modi, without even thinking of the
situation. Instead of creating panic and start useless remarks and agitate go
to your states, and help people wherever you can, but no they won’t else Modi
will take all the credit. In the race of opposing Modi they are killing their
own political careers.
Similar situation is with the
Supreme Court. Instead of making remark like – “Rioting will happen” they could
have made more sensible comment. If they are with the nation they should have
asked the government to take proper steps and asked for the clarifications of
doubts. But SC decided to go other way. SC has to understand its own importance
and the impact of their own comments and news agencies have to present it in
better way then printing the headlines about possible riot.
What should everyone do?
Be critical to government it is
required to keep the things democratic, but with critical point support the
government with your suggestions what could be done better instead of fighting
for rollback which is not possible. Government has open ears and listening to
every good idea to make life easier for people.
Supreme Court need to support, as
decision cannot be rolled back. But instead of creating panic, SC can guide the
government to take better steps. Must understand the constraints and efforts.
Political parties and CMs of
various states should stay in their state and try to control the situations.
No-body stopped you to help farmers with financial help from your state.
Public need to understand, there is
enough time. 40 more days to go. Try to do all white transactions, deposit most
of your cash in one go and take out what you need, do not store the change.
Think of a difficult time the nation has to survive, there won’t be any
opportunity in life of most of us to stand for the nation. Have patience,
cooperate with each other it’s a matter of just few days. Things will be
normal.
And everyone may criticize the government
to any level as soon as the nation is out of the crisis. If the decision is
wrong and people didn’t like it, 2019 is out of Modi’s reach and if people are
with him, do whatever you can 2019- Modi is coming again with more power.
Be united as a nation during the
crisis.
